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:: Volume 32, Issue 1 (4-2024) ::
Journal of Ilam University of Medical Sciences 2024, 32(1): 99-115 Back to browse issues page
Mathematical Modeling of Population Growth Prediction Until 2041 in Iran
Ali Ehsani1 , Mansour Sharifi * 2, Shahla Kazemipour3
1- Dept of Demography, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2- Dept of Demography, Garmsar Branch, Islamic Azad University, Garmsar, Iran , sharififim@ut.ac.ir
3- Dept of Demography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Abstract:   (372 Views)
Introduction:  It is unlikely that the population growth rate has stayed steady in recent years, given the present situation in Iran. There has been a slight rise in population growth over the past 60 years, according to birth, mortality, and census results from 1956 to 2016.
Material & Methods: Mathematical modeling is a common element of computer programs used to predict population growth. This model was applied as a useful and instructive tool in the present research to predict Iran's population until 2041.
Results: The standard mathematical modeling approach predicted the total population using the data from Iran's 1956–2016 census using different mathematical modeling methods. The descriptive population growth prediction model (exponential) outperformed the other techniques in terms of compatibility with historical population data. Furthermore, it proved to be highly effective and appropriate for projecting Iran's population in the future. For the year 2041, the following population estimates were projected: A total population of 113,215,189, a male population of 57,366,315, a female population of 55,848,874, an urban population of 83,786,814, a rural population of 29,428,375, and a total population of Iran exceeding 100 million people during the year 2031.
Discussion & Conclusion: Combining the exponential and hyperbolic extrapolation models allows for the prediction that Iran's population will increase to 159,852,540 people by the year 2075, which is twice as many as that of the 2016 census. Moreover, it is also feasible to calculate the approximate total population that lived 100,000 years before the 1956 census using mathematical modeling.
Keywords: Population Prediction, Mathematical Modeling, Exponential Growth, Hyperbolic Growth, Doubling Time
Full-Text [PDF 1513 kb]   (170 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: social sciences
Received: 2023/06/3 | Accepted: 2023/09/26 | Published: 2024/05/4
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Ehsani A, Sharifi M, Kazemipour S. Mathematical Modeling of Population Growth Prediction Until 2041 in Iran. J. Ilam Uni. Med. Sci. 2024; 32 (1) :99-115
URL: http://sjimu.medilam.ac.ir/article-1-7994-en.html
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Volume 32, Issue 1 (4-2024) Back to browse issues page
مجله دانشگاه علوم پزشکی ایلام Journal of Ilam University of Medical Sciences
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