[Home ] [Archive]   [ فارسی ]  
:: Main :: About :: Current Issue :: Archive :: Search :: Submit :: Contact ::
Main Menu
Journal Information::
Articles archive::
Publication Ethics::
Peer Review Process::
Indexing Databases::
For Authors::
For Reviewers::
Contact us::
Site Facilities::
Google Scholar Metrics

Citation Indices from GS

AllSince 2019

Search in website

Advanced Search
Receive site information
Enter your Email in the following box to receive the site news and information.
Registered in



:: Volume 32, Issue 1 (4-2024) ::
Journal of Ilam University of Medical Sciences 2024, 32(1): 99-115 Back to browse issues page
Mathematical Modeling of Population Growth Prediction Until 2041 in Iran
Ali Ehsani1 , Mansour Sharifi * 2, Shahla Kazemipour3
1- Dept of Demography, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2- Dept of Demography, Garmsar Branch, Islamic Azad University, Garmsar, Iran , sharififim@ut.ac.ir
3- Dept of Demography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Abstract:   (259 Views)
Introduction:  It is unlikely that the population growth rate has stayed steady in recent years, given the present situation in Iran. There has been a slight rise in population growth over the past 60 years, according to birth, mortality, and census results from 1956 to 2016.
Material & Methods: Mathematical modeling is a common element of computer programs used to predict population growth. This model was applied as a useful and instructive tool in the present research to predict Iran's population until 2041.
Results: The standard mathematical modeling approach predicted the total population using the data from Iran's 1956–2016 census using different mathematical modeling methods. The descriptive population growth prediction model (exponential) outperformed the other techniques in terms of compatibility with historical population data. Furthermore, it proved to be highly effective and appropriate for projecting Iran's population in the future. For the year 2041, the following population estimates were projected: A total population of 113,215,189, a male population of 57,366,315, a female population of 55,848,874, an urban population of 83,786,814, a rural population of 29,428,375, and a total population of Iran exceeding 100 million people during the year 2031.
Discussion & Conclusion: Combining the exponential and hyperbolic extrapolation models allows for the prediction that Iran's population will increase to 159,852,540 people by the year 2075, which is twice as many as that of the 2016 census. Moreover, it is also feasible to calculate the approximate total population that lived 100,000 years before the 1956 census using mathematical modeling.
Keywords: Population Prediction, Mathematical Modeling, Exponential Growth, Hyperbolic Growth, Doubling Time
Full-Text [PDF 1513 kb]   (95 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: social sciences
Received: 2023/06/3 | Accepted: 2023/09/26 | Published: 2024/05/4
1. Zanjani HA. Demographic changes of household in iran. JPAI 2006;1:61-80.
2. Schröder M. Concepts and topics. Sharelife Methodology, 2011; 11:26-94.
3. Abbasi-Shavazi M, Mehryar, A, Jones G, Mcdonald, P. Revolution, war and modernization: Population policy and fertility change in Iran. J Popul Res 2002; 25: 19. doi: 10.1007/BF03031967.
4. Hathout D. Modeling population growth: exponential and hyperbolic modeling. Appl Math 2013;4:299-304. doi: 10.4236/am.2013.42045.
5. Bender B. Asymptotic approximations for the number of fanout-free functions. IEEE Trans Comp 1978;100:1180-3. doi: 10.1109/TC.1978.1675021.
6. Fulford G. Mathematical modelling using scenarios, case studies and projects in early undergraduate classes. Int J Math Educ Sci Technol 2023; 55:1-12. doi:10.1080/0020739X.2023.2244490.
7. Hajilo M, Pennington-Gray L, Riahi V, Talkhab A. A Risk Management Assessment of Rural Villages in Abhar County, Iran Using Spatial Analysis and Disaster Readiness Surveys. Preprints 2017: 7. doi: 10.20944/preprints201707.0067.
8. Ghafari G, Karimi A, Nozari H. Trend study of quality of life in Iran. Social Studies Res Iran 2012; 1:107-34. doi: 10.22059/JISR.2013.36564.
9. Behnood M, Morovati M, Ghanei Bafghi M J. Prioritizing effective factors on dust through DPSIR model and decision-making methods in Rigan city, Kerman province. DEEJ 2022; 9:15-28. doi: 10.22052/deej.2020.9.26.11.
10. Namazi A, Rafiey H, Mousavi M, Setareh Forouzan A. Ghaed Amini, G. A systematic review of studies on the factors affecting the quality of life in the general population of Iran. J Health Literacy 2021; 5: 17-30. doi: 10.22038/jhl.2021.54455.1143.
11. Nemati M, Sardari Charmi A. Analysis of Latiyan Dam Catchment's Water Resource Condition Based On DPSIR Conceptual Model. Human Environ 2017; 15: 31-46.
12. Anabestani A, et al. The Role of Rural Management (Dehyaries) in Sustaining Rural Settlement Population (Case Study: Meymand District). JSHSP 2014; 9:59-72. doi:10.30490/RVT.2020.342324.1205.
13. Nasrilazadeh MJ, Saraei H. The structural and functional differetiation of Military organizations from the political institutions. Iran J Sociol 2008;9:24-57. doi: 10.30510/PSI.2022.328748.3080.
14. Dehghan nezhad R. The Role of Parents in the Sociability of Children According to Quran. Biannual J Res Interpret Quran 2022; 9: 165-96.
15. Kashani-Sabet F. 'Iran’s Population Policies: A Historical Debate', in Rickie Solinger, and Mie Nakachi (eds), Reproductive States: Global Perspectives on the Invention and Implementation of Population Policy (New York, 2016; online edn, Oxford Academic 2016. doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199311071.003.0007.
16. Sadidpour S, Ghaneirad MA. The Evolution of Madness in the Lasting Texts of Persian Literature. Textual Criticism of Persian Literature 2014; 6: 23-42.
17. Mehrolhassani MH, Mirzaei S, Poorhoseini SS, Oroomiei N. Finding the reasons of decrease in the rate of population growth in Iran using causal layered analysis (CLA) method. Med J Islam Repub Iran 2019; 33:92. doi:10.34171/mjiri.33.92.
Send email to the article author

Add your comments about this article
Your username or Email:


Ethics code: 0009-0000-5595-3376

XML   Persian Abstract   Print

Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:

Ehsani A, Sharifi M, Kazemipour S. Mathematical Modeling of Population Growth Prediction Until 2041 in Iran. J. Ilam Uni. Med. Sci. 2024; 32 (1) :99-115
URL: http://sjimu.medilam.ac.ir/article-1-7994-en.html

Rights and permissions
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Volume 32, Issue 1 (4-2024) Back to browse issues page
مجله دانشگاه علوم پزشکی ایلام Journal of Ilam University of Medical Sciences
Persian site map - English site map - Created in 0.16 seconds with 41 queries by YEKTAWEB 4654